Climate displacement, humanitarian needs and Forecast-based financing

The forced displacement of individuals and communities as a result of extreme weather events and the impact of anthropogenic climate change has been described as one of the greatest humanitarian challenges of the 21st Century. A multi-sectoral approach is required to address the humanitarian dimensions of climate displacement. Approaches span initiatives to prevent or reduce the conditions that lead to displacement (for example, resilience and adaptation strategies); response to displacement (including access to essential humanitarian assistance); recovery initiatives that increase resilience and support for the attainment of sustainable solutions (return, local integration and resettlement). Within the discussions on the humanitarian dimension of climate displacement, there has been increasing recognition of the specific importance of preparedness initiatives. Practitioners like the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC), for instance, have been starting to apply tests of forecast-based financing (FbF) to inform short-term humanitarian assistance based on disaster warnings from scientific forecasts. This paper serves as an innovative contribution towards understanding how FbF can be used as an effective approach to prepare for or prevent climate-related forced displacement. Using a panel econometric analysis, this paper models climate-related forced migration movements and humanitarian needs in Somalia during recent compound drought events. The model results support the improvement of early warning systems in the region and more broadly, the inclusive development and provision of time-effective humanitarian aid to those displaced globally.