Lagged response of Adélie penguin population dynamics to environmental variability in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) are known as an eco-indicator species of the Southern Ocean marine ecosystem. Environmental variability drives penguin population dynamics through its effects on vital rates (e.g., survival, dispersal, or breeding success). Recent studies suggested that inter-annual variation strongly affected Adélie penguin abundance in individual colonies, and aggregating abundance across space provided more reliable trends of population dynamics. By considering the similarity of the regional sea-ice concentration, we divided the Ross Sea region into six areas to investigate the effects of environmental changes on penguin population dynamics from 1982–2013. Time lagged analysis of 0–6 years between penguin abundance and environmental factors were conducted in our study. We found that penguin abundance was significantly correlated with environmental factors at different lag times (p <0.05). In the western Ross Sea region, penguin abundance was positively correlated with temperature over the past 5 years (p <0.05), and positively correlated with sea-ice concentration at a lag of 4–6 years (p <0.05). In the northernmost region of the Ross Sea, penguin abundance was significantly correlated with chlorophyll concentration 4 years earlier (p <0.01). Generalized additive model (GAM) results showed that in mid-Victoria Land, the relationship between sea-ice concentration and penguin abundance was quadratic. Penguin abundance peaked when sea-ice concentration was approximately 40%. On Franklin Island, temperature positively affected penguin abundance when temperature was lower than -3°C, and the contribution decreased considerably when temperature was higher than -2.5°C. Optimal ranges of environmental factors for Adélie penguin population might exist and differ spatially in the Ross Sea. Our study highlighted the lagged response of penguin population to environmental factors to further understand the effects of climate changes on the Antarctic biosphere.