Do Laymen’s Perceptions of Sea Level Rise Risk Conform to the Scientific Projections?

Sea level rise (SLR) in the 21st century poses fundamental risks to coastal residents. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast (Gulf Coast) is among the regions experiencing the most rapid SLR. In addition to its increasing exposure to SLR and related coastal flooding, the Gulf Coast is home to a large percentage of population that displays high social vulnerability. How the coastal population in this vulnerable region perceives the impending risks posed by SLR warrants further examination. The gap between scientific assessment and laymen’s perceptions of climate change and its impacts has posed fundamental challenges in risk communication. Without a thorough understanding of how probabilistic SLR projections would be perceived by the public, scientific communication and adaptation efforts may be hindered. Using a new comprehensive Gulf Coast survey data, this study examines perceptions of future sea level change and provides the first explicit  comparison of coastal residents’ expectation with scientific projections of SLR by mid-21^st cenruty.