EGU2020-21105
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21105
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Cross-timescale interference and predictability of extremes: a chimera?

Ángel G. Muñoz
Ángel G. Muñoz
  • International Research institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades-New York, United States of America (agmunoz@iri.columbia.edu)

Cross-timescale interference involves linear and non-linear interactions between climate modes acting at multiple timescales (Muñoz et al., 2015, 2016, 2017; Robertson et al., 2015; Moron et al., 2015), and that are related to windows of opportunity for enhanced predictive skill (Mariotti et al., 2020), with relevant societal impacts (e.g., Doss-Gollin et al., 2018; Anderson et al., 2020). Using a simple mathematical model, reanalysis data and gridded observations, here we analyze plausible mechanisms for cross-timescale interference, describing conditions for coupling of oscillating modes and its impact on extreme rainfall occurrence and predictive skill. Concrete examples for Northeast North America and southern South America are discussed, as well as implications for climate model diagnostics.

How to cite: Muñoz, Á. G.: Cross-timescale interference and predictability of extremes: a chimera?, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21105, 2020

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