First results of model sensitivity studies on the influence of global changes to the North and Baltic Seas

The “German Strategy for Adaption to Climate Change” (DAS) has been established as the political framework to climate change adaption in Germany. One task of the “Adaption Action Plan of the DAS” is the installation of a permanent service of seamless climate prediction. The pilot project “Projection Service for Waterways and Shipping” (ProWaS) prepares an operational forecasting and projection service for climate, extreme weather and coastal and inland waterbodies. The target region is the North Sea and Baltic Sea with focus on the German coastal region and its estuaries.

ProWaS provides regional model setups for the North and Baltic Seas. To figure out technical issues and to validate the model setups, 20-year hindcast simulations forced with a regional reanalysis (COSMO-REA6 (Bollmeyer et al., 2015)) were carried out.

These simulations are used as basis for sensitivity studies with reference to global change scenarios. To evaluate the effect of global changes on the coastal regions especially in the North and Baltic Seas, model studies regarding global sea level rise, changes in global ocean and air temperature, changes in global salinity and changes of the regional river runoffs have been performed. Therefore, boundary conditions of a hindcast simulation are adapted to different change conditions and sensitivity studies for different periods have been carried out. First results of these investigations on model sensitivity studies are presented. These results will be used as a basis for further development of climate projection models.