A co-evolutionary modelling framework for water-soil-vegetation interactions in Turkish semiarid landscapes for sustainable natural resources under climate change

This multidisciplinary project investigates the implications of aridification induced by climate change and human-induced land-cover land-use change in semiarid landscapes of Turkey on erosion dynamics and landscapes patterns and morphology. Deviations from climate mean states will result in loss of vegetation productivity and soil fertility in these water-limited ecosystems and exacerbate the natural conditions in terms of natural land‑cover and soil protection for natural resources sustainability. Here, we offer a comprehensive modelling framework to explore the water-soil-vegetation interactions under climate change for the following decades.

Remotely‑sensed vegetation indices and maps will be used to identify the regions where are prone to land‑cover change under climate change. Hence, the climate projections for the 21^st century taken from CMIP6 model experiments will be used for anticipating the potential changes in ecosystem dynamics and boundaries in these water-limited ecosystems. Moreover, these climate projections will be used as forcing data in a vegetation-coupled landscape evolution model to understand how the landscape morphology and erosion dynamics interact with changing climate in Turkish arid lands. Besides erosion dynamics, the future of the unique geomorphic landscape feature of these regions, the Turkish badlands, will be investigated based on climate projections.

The outcomes of this project will enhance the comprehension of the effects of geomorphic, hydrological, and ecological processes on natural resources under climate change in semiarid Turkish landscapes.