MAPPY : Multisectoral Analysis of climate and land use change impacts on Pollinators, Plant diversity and crops Yields
- 1ULiège, Sciences, Département d'astrophysique, géophysique et océanographie (AGO), Belgium (maurine.antoine@doct.uliege.be)
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
The impacts of climate change on natural systems and biodiversity are known and already visible in some regions. With regard to agronomic systems, the effects of climate change have also been widely studied. However, some processes are still poorly understood, such as the links between pollinators and climate change or land use change. The feedbacks between different systems under climate change and land use change are still very little explored and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is within this framework that the MAPPY project fits.
The overall objective of the MAPPY project, funded by the AXIS program of JPI-Climate, is to study quantitatively feedback processes linking pollinators, plant diversity and crop yields in the context of climate and land use changes. A set of complementary models will be assembled, iteratively, to capture the dynamics of this complex system at regional level. Dynamic vegetation models and species distribution models will be used to assess the impacts of future climate change. Then, an agent-based model will be used to derive detailed land use and land cover change scenarios for the future at the scale of studied regions. The results of this combination of models will make it possible to assess the potential impacts on pollinator communities, which will make it possible to refine crop models. Finally, the socio-economic impacts of these forecasts will be assessed.
Several case study regions are defined in Europe. The entire study will be undertaken with local stakeholders who will identify the most relevant topics to be addressed. Indeed, stakeholders are asking more and more questions about climate change impact on crop yields, fruit crop damage, pollinator decline. Therefore, they will help us select the results that will be useful to them. Finally, a web platform will be developed with online tools allowing exploration of project results. The platform will be designed by involving stakeholders from the start of the project.
Arpita Verma(1), Louis François(1), Florence de Longueville(2), Nicolas Dendoncker(2), Koos Biesmeijer(3), Hens Runhaar(4), Huan Zhang(5), Merja Tölle(5), Jürg Luterbacher(6), Juliane Kellner(7), Thomas Hickler(7), Sara Minoli(8), Christoph Müller(8), Alvaro López-Bernal(9), Francisco Villalobos(9), Luca Testi(9), Christoph Plutzar(10), Andreas Mayer(10), Veronika Gaube(10), Magali Ronsman (11) UR SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium – e-mail: Louis.Francois@uliege.beDepartment of Geography, University of Namur, Namur, BelgiumBiodiversity Dynamics, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, NetherlandsCenter for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, GermanyJustus-Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, GermanySenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (Bik-F), Frankfurt, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany Institute for Sustainable Agriculture, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Cordoba, SpainInstitute of Social Ecology, University of Natural Ressources and Life Sciences, Vienna, AustriaECORES – Group One, Bruxelles, Belgium
How to cite: Antoine, M. and the Maurine Antoine(1): MAPPY : Multisectoral Analysis of climate and land use change impacts on Pollinators, Plant diversity and crops Yields, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21788, 2020
