Evaluation of the spatio-temporal development of hydrological droughts and its sensitivity to the choice of different parameters of the hydrological model. Case study: Magdalena-Cauca River basin – Colombia

Title:

Evaluation of the spatio-temporal development of hydrological droughts and its sensitivity to the choice of different parameters of the hydrological model. Case study: Magdalena-Cauca River basin – Colombia

Abstract:

Droughts in Colombia have been studied using local and regional indicators; however, the nature of events and the heterogeneity of mountains, and the high variability of climate and hydrological process, indicate that this should follow a more dynamic spatiotemporal analysis. In previous studies about drought, it has been possible to identify how natural drought phenomena tend to spread irregularly through large regions. This research aims to develop a spatiotemporal evaluation of hydrological droughts in Colombia. The process of the analysis followed three main components, one estimating the drought indicator to the interpolated data set from the local agency IDEAM. This step aims to find the optimal combination of parameters sets to characterize the hydrological behavior; to determine standardized runoff, soil moisture and evaporation deficit indices (SRI, SSMI, SEDI respectively). Second, the determination of the patterns using the Contiguous Drought Area (CDA) and Non-Contiguous Drought Area (NCDA) methodologies to characterise the spatio-temporal behaviour of the hydrological droughts. And before concluding an assessment of the robustness of the drought events, a threshold sensitivity analysis was performed. The body of the study includes a complete conceptual framework with the definition of hydrological droughts and drought indices (DI). This methodology is based on the characterization spatiotemporal droughts that examines the patterns of events using results from previous studies. The results of this analysis are key for the preparedness of the region to extreme events.