Predicting floods and flood-health vulnerability to support pre-disaster management in Peru

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. To address this critical need, we develop flood forecasts and a flood-health vulnerability and risk prediction model for Peru based on geographic, demographic, socio-economic, health vulnerability indicators, and decision weights from national agencies. This model estimates an integrated flood-health vulnerability index with the purpose of identifying measures to reduce potential vulnerability/risk and enhance the capacity to act proactively and efficiently to minimize impacts. These spatially explicit impacts (e.g., damages) can be utilized by international and local disaster management agencies to improve their existing disaster management strategies. Once this approach is systematically linked with the global and local flood forecast systems, it can provide the groundwork for a future multi-sectoral (flood and health) risk warning system.