EGU2020-2360, updated on 04 Jan 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2360
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Continuous components of solar activity oscillation spectrum and forecasting of solar activity

Dmitry Sokoloff1,2,3, Peter Frick3, Rodion Stepanov3, and Frank Stefani4
Dmitry Sokoloff et al.
  • 1Moscow State University, Russian Federation (sokoloff.dd@gmail.com)
  • 2IZMIRAN, Russian Federation
  • 3ICMM, Russian Federation
  • 4Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Germany

Spectrum of solar activity oscillations contains apart from the well-known 11-year activity cycle a continuous component, which includes, in particular, quasy-biennual oscillations as well as long-term oscillations including so-called Gleisberg cycle.  We suggest to consider the mid-term solar variability in terms of statistical dynamic of fully turbulent systems, where solid arguments are required to accept an isolated dominant frequency in a continuous (smooth) spectrum. What about the timescales longer than the Schwabe cycle, we consider them as a presence of long-term memory in solar dynamo and discuss statistical test for veryication of this interpretation. Sequences for statistical long-term forecast of solar activity are discussed.

How to cite: Sokoloff, D., Frick, P., Stepanov, R., and Stefani, F.: Continuous components of solar activity oscillation spectrum and forecasting of solar activity, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-2360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2360, 2020.

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