Continuous components of solar activity oscillation spectrum and forecasting of solar activity
- 1Moscow State University, Russian Federation (sokoloff.dd@gmail.com)
- 2IZMIRAN, Russian Federation
- 3ICMM, Russian Federation
- 4Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Germany
Spectrum of solar activity oscillations contains apart from the well-known 11-year activity cycle a continuous component, which includes, in particular, quasy-biennual oscillations as well as long-term oscillations including so-called Gleisberg cycle. We suggest to consider the mid-term solar variability in terms of statistical dynamic of fully turbulent systems, where solid arguments are required to accept an isolated dominant frequency in a continuous (smooth) spectrum. What about the timescales longer than the Schwabe cycle, we consider them as a presence of long-term memory in solar dynamo and discuss statistical test for veryication of this interpretation. Sequences for statistical long-term forecast of solar activity are discussed.
How to cite: Sokoloff, D., Frick, P., Stepanov, R., and Stefani, F.: Continuous components of solar activity oscillation spectrum and forecasting of solar activity, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-2360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2360, 2020.