Precipitation projections of the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at convection permitting scale
- 1Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP),Trieste, Italy (epichell@ictp.it)
- 2University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
- 3Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy
- 4CNRM, CNRS University of Toulouse, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
- 5Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
- 6Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
- 7Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa
- 8Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK
- 9Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark
- 10The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
- 11Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), de Bilt, Netherlands
- 12Institute of Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Research Centre Julich, Julich, Germany
- 13Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Senftenberg, Germany
- 14Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
- 15Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Graz Austria
- 16Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe, Germany
- 17Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH-Zurich
We present a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model scenario simulations run at scales allowing for explicit treatment of convective processes (2-3km) over historical and end of century time slices, providing an overview of future precipitation changes over the Alpine domain within the convection-permitting CORDEX-FPS initiative. The 12 simulations of the ensemble have been performed by different research groups around Europe. The simulations are compared with high resolution observations to assess the performance over the historical period and the ensemble of 12 to 25 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark.
An improvement of the representation of fine scale details of the analyzed fields on a seasonal scale is found, as well as of the onset and peak of the summer diurnal convection. An enhancement of the projected patterns of change and modifications of its sign for the daily precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation over some regions are found with respect to coarse resolution ensemble. A change of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle for precipitation intensity and frequency is also shown, as well also a larger positive change for high to extreme events for daily and hourly precipitation distributions. The results are challenging and promising for further assessment of the local impacts of climate change.
How to cite: Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Mishra, A. N., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Soares, P. MM., Truhetz, H., and Vergara-Temprado, J.: Precipitation projections of the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at convection permitting scale, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2687, 2020.
