21st century trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport
- 1Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain
- 2NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
- 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
- 4Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canada
- 5NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- 6Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
- 7National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
- 8Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
One of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how will tropospheric ozone concentrations change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common climate change scenario (RCP6.0). We use two idealized stratospheric tracers implemented in the models to examine changes in transport. We find that the strengthening of the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere and of the upper part of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere lead to enhanced STT in the subtropics. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC in the NH and changes in eddy transport contribute to increase STT at high latitudes. In the SH, the deep branch does not accelerate due to the dynamical effects of the ozone hole recovery.
How to cite: Abalos, M., Orbe, C., Kinnison, D., Plummer, D., Oman, L., Jöckel, P., Morgenstern, O., Garcia, R., Zeng, G., Stone, K., and Dameris, M.: 21st century trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2768, 2020.
