Tropical cyclone genesis and trajectory characteristics in the western north Pacific

The western North Pacific (WNP) is one of the most active tropical cyclone (TC) regions, which can inflict enormous death and massive property damage to surrounding areas. Although many studies about tropical cyclone activities on multi-timescales have been done, most of them focus on the entire basin, variations within the basin deserve more investigations. Besides TC characteristics on different timescales, to investigate the impacts of environment variables on TC and provide informative factors for prediction is another concern in the research community. In this study, we adopt several data science techniques, including Gaussian kernel estimator, wavelet, cross-wavelet coherence and regression analyses, to explore the spatiotemporal variations of TC genesis and associated environmental conditions. Significant semiannual and annual variations of TC genesis have been found in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) and oceanic areas east of the Philippines (OAEP). In the southeast part of WNP (SEWNP), TC genesis shows prominent variations on ENSO time scale. With reconstructed TC series on those frequencies, we further quantify the influences of environmental variables on the primary TC signals over WNP. About 40% of the identified TC variance over NSCS and OAEP can be explained by variability in vertical shear of zonal wind and relative humidity. In the SEWNP, TC genesis reveals strong nonlinear and non-stationary relationships with vertical shear of zonal wind and absolute vorticity. Besides, A probabilistic clustering algorithm is used to describe the TC tracks in the WNP. The best track dataset from JMA is decomposed into three clusters based on genesis location and curvature. For each cluster, we analyze the relationships between TC properties, such as genesis location, trajectory and intensity, and associated environmental conditions using the self-organizing map. The spatial patterns of sea surface temperature have huge impacts on TC genesis location, while the trajectory is largely influenced by geopotential height.