EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

The contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to future sea level rise

Jim Jordan1, Hilmar Gudmundsson1, Adrian Jenkins1, Chris Stokes2, Stewart Jamieson2, and Bertie Miles2
Jim Jordan et al.
  • 1Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, U.K.
  • 2Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, U.K.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is the single largest potential contributor to future global mean sea level rise, containing a water mass equivalent of 53 m. Recent work has found the overall mass balance of the EAIS to be approximately in equilibrium, albeit with large uncertainties. However, changes in oceanic conditions have the potential to upset this balance. This could happen by both a general warming of the ocean and also by shifts in oceanic conditions allowing warmer water masses to intrude into ice shelf cavities.

We use the Úa numerical ice-flow model, combined with ocean-melt rates parameterized by the PICO box mode, to predict the future contribution to global-mean sea level of the EAIS. Results are shown for the next 100 years under a range of emission scenarios and oceanic conditions on a region by region basis, as well as for the whole of the EAIS. 

How to cite: Jordan, J., Gudmundsson, H., Jenkins, A., Stokes, C., Jamieson, S., and Miles, B.: The contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to future sea level rise, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-3099,, 2020


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displays version 2 – uploaded on 04 May 2020
5-6 slide version, to fit 5 minute slot
  • CC1: Comment on EGU2020-3099, Sammie Buzzard, 05 May 2020

    Hi Jim, really interesting stuff. I was wondering if you could clarify the acronyms on slide 5? Think I've worked most of them out but I wanted to be sure... Thanks!

    • AC1: Reply to CC1, Jim Jordan, 05 May 2020

      Hi Sam,

      Very sorry, more explanation was on the longer version before i cut it down to 6 slides.

      VAF - Volume of ice above floation (as in, ice not floating and thus contributes to sea level rise)

      IV - Ice volume (total ice in domain, both floating and grounded)

      GA  - Grounded Area (ice coveed grounded area, a reduction implies grounding line retreat)

      ABW - Antarctic Bottom Water (Ice shelves primarily forced with relatively cold water)

      CDW - Circumpolar Deep Water (Ice shelves primarily forced with relatively warm water)

      RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 - Atmospheric and oceanic changes consistant with CMIP5 ensembles appliedfor the corrseponding emission scenario.


      Hope that helps!


displays version 1 – uploaded on 01 May 2020, no comments