Tropical cyclones and climate change: Recent results and uncertainties

Here I will describe recent results on the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones (TC) using the Columbia Hazard (CHAZ) model. Using environmental conditions from reanalysis and climate models and a statistical-dynamical downscaling methodology (Lee et al. 2018), CHAZ generates synthetic TCs that can be used to analyze TC risk.  I will first discuss the current knowledge and uncertainties in TC frequency projections. Then I will present our recent projections on TC frequency using CHAZ. Focusing on the North Atlantic, I will finish by discussing how we can use a combination of observations, high-resolution models and CHAZ synthetic TCs in the historical period to inform the reliability of the models' TC frequency projections. 

Reference:

Lee, C.-Y., M.K. Tippett, A.H. Sobel, and S.J. Camargo, 2018. An environmentally forced tropical cyclone hazard model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 10, doi: 10.1002/2017MS001186.