EGU2020-3553
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3553
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Likely and High-End Impacts of Regional Sea-Level Rise on the Shoreline Change of European Sandy Coasts Under a High Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario

Rémi Thiéblemont1, Gonéri Le Cozannet1, Alexandra Toimil2, Benoit Meyssignac3, and Iñigo Losada2
Rémi Thiéblemont et al.
  • 1BRGM, DRP, France (r.thieblemont@externe.brgm.fr)
  • 2Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IHCantabria”, Spain.
  • 3Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales “LEGOS“, France.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major concern for coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion in the decades to come. Lately, the value of high-end sea-level scenarios (HESs) to inform stakeholders with low-uncertainty tolerance has been increasingly recognized. Here, we provide high-end projections of SLR-induced sandy shoreline retreats for Europe by the end of the 21st century based on the conservative Bruun rule. Our HESs rely on the upper bound of the RCP8.5 scenario “likely-range” and on high-end estimates of the different components of sea-level projections provided in recent literature. For both HESs, SLR is projected to be higher than 1 m by 2100 for most European coasts. For the strongest HES, the maximum coastal sea-level change of 1.9 m is projected in the North Sea and Mediterranean areas. This translates into a median pan-European coastline retreat of 140 m for the moderate HES and into more than 200 m for the strongest HES. The magnitude and regional distribution of SLR-induced shoreline change projections, however, utterly depend on the local nearshore slope characteristics and the regional distribution of sea-level changes. For some countries, especially in Northern Europe, the impacts of high-end sea-level scenarios are disproportionally high compared to those of likely scenarios.

How to cite: Thiéblemont, R., Le Cozannet, G., Toimil, A., Meyssignac, B., and Losada, I.: Likely and High-End Impacts of Regional Sea-Level Rise on the Shoreline Change of European Sandy Coasts Under a High Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3553, 2020

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