Comparison between forecasts of reference evapotranspiration and ETo values calculated using data from different climatic conditions

Evapotranspiration is the transfer of water from the earth's surface to the atmosphere. It comprises the sum of water losses to atmosphere due to the processes of evaporation of moisture from soil, water bodies and wet plant canopies, and the transpiration of water from plants. Forecasts of this crucial component of the hydrologic cycle can be very valuable for growers, farm managers, irrigation practitioners, water resource planners and managers, and reservoir operators for their planning, allocation, delivery and scheduling decisions, as well as to hydrologic scientists for research purposes. Verifying the reliability of models’ forecasts is among the critical tasks for development and performance evaluation of physical models. In fact, the verification allows understanding the models’ behavior, and evaluating their applicability and dependability. The US National Weather Service (NWS) has released a product that provides forecasts of reference evapotranspiration (FRET) at 2.5-km grid resolution for the entire continental US. In this study, a comparison is made between ETo estimates from FRET and ETo values calculated by the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) for 68 days during summer 2019. Both the FRET forecasts and ETo values were obtained from NWS and CIMIS, respectively, on the basis of 15 CIMIS locations that are representative of different climatic conditions in California. In addition, air temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) data were also collected/calculated from the NWS and CIMIS websites to analyze the sensitivity of FRET forecasts to predictions of these parameters. All FRET forecasts were performed with timescales of 1, 3, 5 and 7 days. Statistical indices were calculated to assess the dependability of FRET values. They showed a good correlation of the FRET model outputs with CIMIS ETo data, with some differences depending on the climatic characteristics of selected weather stations’ locations, suggesting that FRET data could be valuable for anticipating near-future water demand and improve irrigation management in California.