Critical area prioritization for river basin planning and management under future scenarios using SWAT model

Suitable and practicable best management practices (BMPs) are needed to develop effective and efficient watershed management under future climate change scenarios. Tons river basin is an agricultural-based watershed having a great significance to the States of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Identification of critical erosion prone areas of the Tons River basin and implementation of BMPs for the future scenarios (2030-2050) using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios is the main aim of this study. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated for simulation of runoff and sediment yield using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) technique. The values of coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS) and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) were 0.71, 0.70, -8.3 and 0.54 respectively during the calibration period whereas in validation the values were 0.72, 0.71, -3.9 and 0.56 respectively. Thus, the SWAT model can be employed in the Tons river basin of India for critical area prioritization and river basin planning and management under future scenarios.