Determinants of ~1000-year woody vegetation dynamics at the southern boreal forest margin in Northeast China

The most dramatic permafrost degradation is expected to occur at its southernmost distribution, which causes significant vegetation changes in the southernmost boreal forests and consequently affects the carbon stock. To reveal determinants of vegetation change and, in particular, the role of permafrost dynamics, the reconstruction of the long- term vegetation history spanning a warming-cooling cycle is required. Here, we showed that over the last 990 years, vegetation development was characterized by changes in the relative proportions of taxa, such as Larix, Pinus and Corylus, corresponding to the variation in temperature. However, since ~1950 AD, rapid warming has led to the breakdown of the stable relationship among vegetation, climate and permafrost, and the proportion of conifers has shown an increasing trend in the short term due to the influence of permafrost thawing regulated by terrain. In general, we have observed that the coupling system of vegetation, climate and permafrost was stable before ~1950 AD; however, there has been a transition in the most recent rapid warming-induced permafrost thawing. As the southern boundary of permafrost moves northward, it is suspected that the boreal forest in this region will be unstable or may even collapse in the future, and the complete replacement of conifers by broad-leaved trees could greatly reduce the carbon stock in this area by that time.