Schumann resonance intensity as a precursor for warm ENSO episodes

Schumann resonances (SR) are the global electromagnetic resonances of the Earth-ionosphere cavity and constitute the extremely low frequency (< 100 Hz) radiation of the worldwide lightning activity (Schumann, 1952). The recording of SR intensity at a few distant SR stations is an efficient tool to monitor the global lightning. We present the variations of SR intensity in the transition months preceding the warm ENSO episodes for the two super El Niño events in 1997/98 and 2015/16 as well as for the two medium size El Niño periods in 2001/02 and 2008/09  based on SR observations at multiple locations.: Nagycenk, Hungary (47.6N, 16.7E);  Hornsund, Svalbard (77.0N, 15.6E);  Eskdalemuir, UK (55.3N, 3.2W);  Alberta, Canada (51.9N, 111.5W);  Boulder Creek, USA (37.2N, 122.1W).

A remarkable increase in SR intensity is documented two-three months before or just at the beginning of El Niño episodes as compared with the SR intensity in the same months of the preceding La Niña (or non-ENSO) phase for all cases studied here. The percentage increase in SR intensity depends on the amplitude of the warm ENSO period, and is consistently higher for the two super El Niño events. The enhanced SR intensity indicates a worldwide response of global lightning activity. Increased atmospheric instability due to the land-ocean thermal interaction during the transition interval could be responsible for the intensification of lightning activity. This systematic behavior may have been overlooked in earlier studies that compared lightning activity in the integrated ‘cold’ and the ‘warm’ phases, but without exploring the transitional variation. Our results suggest that the SR intensity variation on the interannual time scale acts a precursor for the occurrence of warm ENSO episode.