EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Flood resilience and indirect impacts in art cities

Chiara Arrighi and Fabio Castelli
Chiara Arrighi and Fabio Castelli
  • Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, Florence, Italy (

Resilience is commonly defined as the ability to recover from a shock and quickly restore antecedent conditions. Although it is widely recognized as crucial to reduce adverse impacts and it is gaining importance at global level, resilience to most natural hazards is difficult to measure and predict, as both direct and indirect impacts matter. In this work the mutual connection between flood resilience and indirect flood impacts is investigated through a mathematical model which describes the temporal evolution of the state of the system after an urban inundation event. The inputs to the resilience model are i) a hydraulic model simulating the flood hazard; ii) a vulnerability and recovery model estimating the physical damage to cultural heritage and the temporal persistence of direct and indirect consequences. The method is applied to the historic district of Florence (Italy) affected by a severe flood in 1966. The variables selected as proxies of the state of the system are the number of monuments open to the public after the flood and the number of visitors, which represent a measure of indirect social and economic impacts on the city. The model results show that the resilience model helps the quantification of indirect impacts due to the loss of accessibility of cultural heritage and allows evaluating the effectiveness of prevention measures.


Authors were beneficiary of funding by Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR) under the PRIN 2015 programme with the Project MICHe “Mitigating the impacts of natural hazards on cultural heritage sites, structures and artefacts”

How to cite: Arrighi, C. and Castelli, F.: Flood resilience and indirect impacts in art cities, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4852,, 2020


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displays version 1 – uploaded on 29 Apr 2020
  • CC1: Comment on EGU2020-4852, Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, 30 Apr 2020

    Hi Chiara. You have a nice material and I really like the video. I would like to know the statistics you consider to estimate the time for the opening of the museums? Don't you think that if your interest is the mean, it would also be good to show the global mean along with the minimum and max range?

    • AC1: Reply to CC1, Chiara Arrighi, 02 May 2020

      Hello, thank you for your interest in the project. The re-opening times were calibrated based on a past event occurred in the city (1966). We are aware that today those numbers might be too conservative, in fact we are collecting more recent data from other case studies. In think your suggestion to show a range instead of the mean is very interesting, thanks!