Risks and impacts of Heat Extremes under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming Over Mediterranean areas

Heat extremes have serious impact on human and agriculture over the world. As one of the prominent climate change “hot spots”, Mediterranean area, especially, its eastern area is expected to be more vulnerable to heat exposure, due to its population density and high rates of urbanization. The Paris Agreement aims to control global warming below +2℃ comparing to pre-industrial level. It is interesting to study how heat extremes would change in Mediterranean area in a +1.5 ℃ and +2 ℃ global warming world and how they impact on human and agriculture.

Based on the high resolution climate scenario data from CORDEX-MED, we calculate several heat waves indices e.g. HWN (the total number of events), HWD (the length of the longest event), HWF (the total number of heat waves days), HWA (the hottest day (amplitude) of the hottest event) and EDD (extreme degree days, 30℃ used to study impact on maize yield). We find that in most Mediterranean areas, both heat waves intensity and frequency have a robust increase in a +1.5 ℃ and +2 ℃ global warming world and cause more people exposure to heat waves in different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The most prominent areas are central Spain, Italy and Turkey. Also, more maize growing areas in Mediterranean will experience yield losses.