EGU2020-5031, updated on 12 Jun 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5031
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

A High-Resolution, Model-Based Lightning Risk Map for Turkey

Mustafa Yağız Yılmaz1, Ozan Mert Göktürk2, and Güven Fidan3
Mustafa Yağız Yılmaz et al.
  • 1Alkazar Technology, İstanbul, Turkey (yagiz@alkazar.com.tr)
  • 2Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway (ozanmert@gmail.com)
  • 3Alkazar Technology, İstanbul, Turkey (guven@alkazar.com.tr)

Lightning strikes from convective storms are a serious safety concern for public and businesses alike. Accurate assessment of local lightning risk is therefore crucial for various industries. However, it is usually not possible to obtain lightning climatologies with reasonable spatial detail, due to the scarcity of well distributed, long term observations. At this respect, meteorological models serve as a useful tool for creating lightning risk maps, provided that their output can be verified with available observations. In this study, a high resolution (3 km) lightning risk map has been constructed for Turkey, using output from Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The model was forced by the ECMWF’s ERA-5 reanalysis data, and run for the period of January 2014 – December 2018 (5 years). Simulations were conducted on high-performance computers offered by Amazon Web Services. Lightning flash rates were estimated from WRF output using the parameterization scheme proposed by McCaul et al. (2009). Model-derived lightning rates have been calibrated and validated by observed lightning data for the determined region. The spatial pattern and average rate of lightning flashes over the validation region have been found to agree reasonably well with available observations. The high resolution lightning risk map produced in this study is the first one for Turkey that is based on numerical modeling, and it will serve as an objective guidance for location-based lightning risk assessment in the country.

How to cite: Yılmaz, M. Y., Göktürk, O. M., and Fidan, G.: A High-Resolution, Model-Based Lightning Risk Map for Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5031, 2020

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  • CC1: Comment on EGU2020-5031, Stefano Dietrich, 04 May 2020

    Isn't there a lightning network in Turkey?

    Do you not think it is a weakness of the study to calibrate in Austria, an Alpine country with different latitudes and therefore different weather conditions, and then apply the relationships for Turkey.

    To what variable do the statistics in the table on page 12 refer?

    • AC1: Reply to CC1, Ozan Mert Göktürk, 04 May 2020

      The lightning network over Turkey has been sparse and becoming extensive only recently. So the observation data would have been insufficient if we had tried it over Turkey. So we had to do it like this. You are right that there is some latitudinal difference but in terms of topography the countries are similar.

      The statistics were calculated from annual lightning counts at 400 grid points (calibration phase).

       

      • CC2: Reply to AC1, Stefano Dietrich, 04 May 2020

        Thank you, nice work.