Impacts of air pollution related to fine particulate matter on present and future European urban mortality: a renewable energy mitigation scenario

Cities are hotspots for exposure to air pollution worldwide. The impact of atmospheric pollutants on human health is a main topic of concern related to health issues in urban areas; and there evidence that this problem will become worse under future climate change scenarios. One of the main anthropogenic pollutants released at cities that

impacts human mortality is particulate matter (PM). The riskiness of PM resides in both its composition and size. In particular, this study is focused on fine particles (particles with a diameter of 2.5μm or less, PM_2.5). PM_2.5 can reach lungs, pulmonary alveoli or even bloodstream being transported through the entire human body. In this sense, the emission of PM_2.5 from combustion processes coming from energy production in cities can be a major health problem needing for mitigation policies regarding anthropogenic regulatory pollutants. In this sense, a bet for renewables energies can help the definition of mitigation strategies and can contribute to a better future urban air quality.

Henceforth, this study assesses the impacts of present (1991-2010) and future (RCP8.5,2031-2050) urban air pollution by fine particles on several Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) mortality causes (Lung Cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Ischaemic Heart Disease, Stroke, Lower Respiratory Infection and All diseases). Climate change scenarios were run by using the WRF-Chem online-coupled meteorological/chemistry model in framework of the Spanish REPAIR and ACEX projects, operated over an Euro-CORDEX compliant simulation domain. For the future scenarios, two alternatives under the RCP8.5 climate change scenarios are analysed: (1) business-as-usual energy production system and emissions, and (2) an scenario in which 80% of the European energy is obtained from renewable sources. The emission factors for energy production (g/GJ) were obtained from EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook–2016.

The differences between both scenarios (future vs. present approach) provide the changes in future mortality caused by air pollution. We estimated the mortalities by using non-linear exposure-response functions. Furthermore, a novel contribution of this work is that changes in future population for the 2050 horizon have been taken into account. Different risk ratio and baseline mortalities for each pathology have been estimated in every age range (25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, +80 and all ages). Data was obtained from Institute for Health Medicine.

The results obtained indicate that almost 900,000 deaths per year in Europe are caused by PM_2.5 for the present scenario. Generally, the mortality will increase for both future scenarios. The total mortality on the future RCP8.5 scenario accounts for 1,500,000 deaths for the business-as-usual energy production scenario and 1,480,000 for the future scenario considering 80% of renewable energy production. Eastern Europe is the area most benefited with the change of energy production on the future because the number of deaths will be lower. Stroke is the cause which count with high of deaths in Europe.

 

Acknowledgments: Project ACEX (CGL-2017-87921-R) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Fundación Biodiversidad of the Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition, and FEDER European program, for support to conduct this research.