Helio4Cast - a real time test environment to enhance space weather prediction at Earth
- Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz, Austria (christian.moestl@oeaw.ac.at)
We introduce Helio4cast, an open source python package to provide real time solar wind predictions at the Sun-Earth L1 point, and to directly couple them to forecasts of the aurora oval, geomagnetically induced currents and further geomagnetic indices. We present its current status, using a combination of our PREDSTORM solar wind forecast and the real time modeling of the aurora with the OVATION model. The solar wind prediction is driven by data from either STEREO-A, a recurrence model, an empirical background solar wind model or a future L5 mission. For coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we plan to use our semi-empirical 3DCORE model to produce in situ magnetic flux rope signatures constrained by real-time solar observations, or a machine learning approach based on many previous observations of in situ CMEs. We are particularly interested in how the errors in the solar wind prediction propagate to ground-based observations. Challenges and future plans of the real-time implementation are discussed.
How to cite: Möstl, C., Bailey, R. L., Amerstorfer, U. V., Amerstorfer, T., Weiss, A. J., Reiss, M. A., Hinterreiter, J., and Bauer, M.: Helio4Cast - a real time test environment to enhance space weather prediction at Earth, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5202, 2020.