EGU2020-5231
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5231
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Revisiting the factors that drive interannual variability in stratospheric entry water vapour

Shlomi Ziskin Ziv1 and Chaim I. Garfinkel2
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv and Chaim I. Garfinkel
  • 1Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel (shlomiziskin@gmail.com)
  • 2Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel (chaim.garfinkel@mail.huji.ac.il)

Understanding the sinks, sources and transport processes of stratospheric trace gases can improve our prediction of mid to long term climate change. In this study we consider the processes that lead to variability in stratospheric water vapor. We perform a Multiple Linear Regression(MLR) on the SWOOSH combined anomaly filled water vapor product with ENSO, QBO, BDC, mid-tropospheric temperature, and CH4 as predictors, in an attempt to find the factors that most succinctly explain observed water vapor variability. We also consider the fraction of entry water vapor variability that can be accounted for by variations of the cold point temperature as an upper bound on how much water vapor variability is predictable from large scale processes. Several periods in which the MLR fails to account for interannual variability are treated as case studies in order to better understand variability in entry water not governed by these large scale processes.

How to cite: Ziskin Ziv, S. and I. Garfinkel, C.: Revisiting the factors that drive interannual variability in stratospheric entry water vapour, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5231, 2020

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added 2 slides with non linear model results
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