EGU2020-5301
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5301
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

Richard Bintanja1,2, Karin van der Wiel1, Eveline van der Linden3, Jesse Reusen4, Linda Bogerd5, Folmer Krikken1, and Frank Selten1
Richard Bintanja et al.
  • 1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), RDWK, De Bilt, Netherlands (bintanja@knmi.nl)
  • 2Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 6/7, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands.
  • 3Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  • 4Astrodynamics and Space Missions, Delft University of Technology (TUD), Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS, Delft, The Netherlands.
  • 5Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management, Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.

The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes unknown. Here we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts.

How to cite: Bintanja, R., van der Wiel, K., van der Linden, E., Reusen, J., Bogerd, L., Krikken, F., and Selten, F.: Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5301, 2020

This abstract will not be presented.