Sensitivity of global gross primary production to environmental drivers

Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP), the total amount of carbon taken up by terrestrial plants, is one of the largest fluxes in the global carbon cycle – and a key process governing the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to partly offset continuing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Accurate simulation of land carbon uptake and its response to environmental change is therefore essential for reliable future projections of the terrestrial carbon sink. However, there are still large uncertainties in the sensitivity of global GPP to environmental drivers. Here we use a recently developed and extensively tested generic model of GPP (the ‘P-model’), which uses satellite-derived green vegetation cover as an input, to simulate (a) trends in site-level GPP, as observed at eddy-covariance flux sites; (b) trends in global GPP, for comparison with independent geophysical estimates; and (c) quantitative spatial patterns of the sensitivity of grid-based GPP to green vegetation cover, vapour pressure deficit, temperature, solar radiation, soil moisture and atmospheric CO_2.