Recent Changes in the Larsen-Weddell System

A warming planet, and particularly the warming Pacific Ocean, has led to major changes in the Larsen-Weddell System. While somewhat less significant than those in the adjacent Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea and its coastal ice, the changes are nonetheless dramatic indicators of a closely interconnected system, driven by increased westerly winds and their impact on surface melting and ice drift. The system very likely will see further major changes if warming continues through the 22^nd Century.

A warming trend in the central Pacific over the past ~80 years has induced air circulation changes over the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula. A rise in the mean speed of westerly-northwesterly winds across the northern Peninsula led to more frequent foehn events, which in turn increased surface melting on the eastern Peninsula ice shelves, and were responsible for reduced sea ice cover and more frequent shore leads on the eastern edges of the ice shelves. This likely led to greater sub-ice-shelf circulation, possibly including solar-warmed surface water (in summer) and modified Weddell Deep Water (mWDW). Around 1986, structural evidence in the form of more disrupted shear zones and increased rifting suggests that the Larsen A and B ice shelves began to thin and weaken. At this progressed, a combination of increased surface ponding and reduced backstress on the iceshelves led to a series of catastrophic break-ups due to hydrofracture, in 1995 (Larsen A shelf) and 2002 (Larsen B).  More recently, thinning detected by altimetry on the northern Larsen C may have contributed to new fracturing and calving of a large iceberg there in 2016 (iceberg A-68), setting the ice shelf front significantly farther to the west than has previously been observed (since 1898).

Looking forward, if the trend in increased westerly winds and Southern Annular Mode index continues, it is anticipated (modelled) that the large clockwise Weddell Gyre will increase in mean flow speed, and that warm deep water entrained from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current will more frequently mix with the mid- to deep ocean layers in the Weddell Gyre. One outcome of this is likely to be advection of warm deep water into the Ronne Ice Shelf cavity, dramatically increasing the heat available for sub-ice-shelf melting there and potentially changing ice sheet flux from the outlet glaciers significantly.