Vegetation carrying capacity of arid regions: on the fraction of rainfall sheltered from surface evaporation

Arid lands represent one third of terrestrial surfaces with ecosystems uniquely adapted to water limitations. Arid regions are characterized by low rainfall and sparse vegetation with potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) exceeding annual rainfall (P) and surface evaporation dominating water losses. The objective was to quantify the fraction of rainwater sheltered from surface evaporation to estimate arid region vegetation carrying capacity. The surface evaporation capacitor (SEC) model was used to quantify surface evaporation from the climatic record of rainfall and potential evaporation. The SEC uses soil-specific active evaporation depth where only rainfall events that exceed its critical capacitance result in leakage into deeper layers. This “leakage” becomes protected from surface evaporation and may support vegetation or inter-annual storage. Focusing on arid regions (aridity index P/ET₀< 0.2) we illustrate the strong correlation between evaporation-protected rainwater and net primary productivity (NPP) using typical values of water use efficiency. SEC-estimated NPP values were in good agreement with observations and predictions by a state-of-the art ecohydrological model (T&C). Evaporation-protected soil water storage is generated during a few large rainfall events that exceed surface capacitance. This leakage increases with increasing rainfall variability, potentially enhancing vegetation carrying capacity by diverting larger fractions of rainfall from surface evaporation to vegetation-supporting “leakage”. The potential increase in carrying capacity and resulting vegetation cover are greatly influenced by (i) the change in rainfall variability, (ii) soil type, and (iii) surface features that concentrate or divert runoff. We discuss implications of this mechanism for global greening of arid lands and woody plant encroachment.