EGU2020-6538
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6538
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective

Wenhui Liu1,2, Jidong Wu1,2, Rumei Tang1,2, Mengqi Ye1,2, and Jing Yang1,2
Wenhui Liu et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University
  • 2Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University

Exploring precipitation threshold from an economic loss perspective is critical for rainstorm and flood disaster risk assessment under climate change. Based on the daily gridded precipitation dataset and direct economic losses (DELs) of rainstorm and flood disasters in the mainland of China, this paper first filtered a relatively reasonable disaster-triggering daily precipitation threshold (DDPT) combination according to the relationship between extreme precipitation days and direct economic loss (DEL) rates at province level and then comprehensively analyzed the spatial landscape of DDPT across China. The results show that (1) the daily precipitation determined by the combination of a 10 mm fixed threshold and 99.3th percentile is recognized as the optimal DDPT of rainstorm and flood disasters, and the correlation coefficient between annual extreme precipitation days and DEL rates reached 0.45 (p < 0.01). (2) The optimal DDPT decreases from southeast (up to 87 mm) to northwest (10 mm) across China, and the DDPTs of 7 out of 31 provinces are lower than 25 mm, while 5 provinces are higher than 50 mm on average. These results suggest that DDPTs exist with large spatial heterogeneity across China, and adopting regional differentiated DDPT is helpful for conducting effective disaster risk analysis.

How to cite: Liu, W., Wu, J., Tang, R., Ye, M., and Yang, J.: Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6538, 2020

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Presentation version 2 – uploaded on 03 May 2020
The previous pdf is not clear enough, so i update the PPt version.
  • CC1: Comment on EGU2020-6538, Maria-Carmen Llasat, 04 May 2020

    Thank you very much for your nice presentation. I would like to have more information about how you proceed to analyze the correlation between daily gridded precipitation and direct economic losses. How do you distribute the losses values? At municipal scale? Do you obtain an average precipitation and value of losses at basin scale?  How many events have you used? Have you found any difference between rural and urban areas?

    • AC1: Reply to Maria-Carmen, Wenhui Liu, 05 May 2020

      Thanks for your careful reading and detailed comment. 
      ANS 1-2: About the losses value, we used the annual direct economic losses (DELs) of rainstorm and flood disasters at provincial level. Considering the large uncertainty of downscaling, we did not distribute the loss data but adjusted the gridded precipitation data to the provincial scale by the area-weighted average method.
      ANS 3: Because the boundaries of river basins do not completely coincide with the provinces, we didn’t study precipitation and value of losses at basin scale. But I think it is a good idea! We can study those provinces along the rivers. 
      ANS 4-5: I like these two questions. We don’t analyze disaster events, the difference between rural and urban areas currently, and our main aim is to analyze the disaster-triggering precipitation threshold values from a macro and economic loss perspective. Because we didn’t have detailed events, rural or urban areas damage data of rainstorm and flood disasters. I think acquiring disaster event-level DELs will be helpful for further improving the reliability of the determination of disaster-triggering precipitation threshold. 

Presentation version 1 – uploaded on 01 May 2020 , no comments