Healthy synergies of carbon mitigation under climate policy in China

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China shoulders weighty responsibility for carbon emission reduction. Recent evidence shows that carbon emission in China has the potential to peak ahead of schedule (2030). Analysis of both economic and environmental outcomes of the acceleration of carbon emission reduction will provide important implications for the better design and implementation of climate policies in China and other countries. However, there is a lack of research.

In this study, we focus on carbon emission paths and assess health impacts related to the synergistic emission reduction of atmospheric pollutants and conduct a cost-benefit assessment. We adopte the simulated emission of different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and climate policy scenarios based on Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to quantify co-reduction of air pollution. Using the WRF-Chem chemical transport model and MEIC emission inventory, we simulate the change of air pollutant concentrations and calculate the related health benefit using the IER model and monetize it using the VSL model.

Our analysis shows that carbon emission in China could peak before 2030 in stringent climate policy. Meanwhile, cleaner developing pathways or stricter climate strategies can help to alleviate the pressure of carbon emission reduction. Climate policy will bring additional emission mitigations to atmospheric pollutants, especially for SO₂, and NOx, but NH₃ emission increases. Climate policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions will also bring different degrees of improvements in air quality and health benefits across China in 2030 and 2050, respectively.