EGU2020-659
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-659
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time

Elena Ridolfi1,2, Frederike Albrecht1,2,3, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre1,2
Elena Ridolfi et al.
  • 1University of Uppsala, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden (elena.ridolfi@geo.uu.se)
  • 2Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, CNDS, Sweden
  • 3Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership, Stockholm, Sweden

What implications do societies’ risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. Results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.

How to cite: Ridolfi, E., Albrecht, F., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-659, 2019

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