Analysis of Gust Characteristics and Forecast Correction for the 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in Zhangjiakou

In order to meet the high demand for advanced weather forecasts in the 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, hourly wind observation data of some venues in Zhangjiakou City  is analyzed. Based on the specific gust characteristics in these venues, deviation of numerical weather prediction model is initially calculated to demonstrate the systematic bias of instantaneous wind speed forecasts derived from ECMWF. Additionally, a statistical down scaling method is further used by establishing the relationship between model forecasts and observation. Then independent samples are imported to the established equations to generate revised outputs. Tests show that the established equations have a better effect on forecasting the instantaneous wind speed than original model outputs and the corrected outputs have significantly better accuracy in predicting the instantaneous wind speed in the studied area.