EGU2020-7482
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7482
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Statistical significance of the precursory minima of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity by modern methods of Statistical Physics

Panayiotis A. Varotsos1,2, Nicholas V. Sarlis1, Efthimios S. Skordas1, and Stavros-Richard G. Christopoulos3
Panayiotis A. Varotsos et al.
  • 1Section of Condensed Matter Physics, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Greece
  • 2Solid Earth Physics Institute, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Greece
  • 3Faculty of Engineering, Environment and Computing, Coventry University, Priory Street, Coventry, CV1 5FB, United Kingdom

An order parameter for seismicity was introduced in the frame of natural time analysis [1].  Recent studies of the fluctuations of this order parameter revealed the existence of minima preceding major earthquakes [2-7]. Here, we review the statistical significance of these minima by using recent methods of Statistical Physics, such as receiver operating characteristics [8] and event coincidence analysis [9,10]. These methods are also applied to the investigation [11] of the statistical significance of Seismic Electric Signals [12].

References

  1. Varotsos, P.A.; Sarlis, N.V.; Skordas, E.S. Natural Time Analysis: The new view of time. Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and other Complex Time-Series; Springer-Verlag: Berlin Heidelberg, 2011.
  2. Sarlis, N.V.; Skordas, E.S.; Varotsos, P.A.; Nagao, T.; Kamogawa, M.; Tanaka, H.; Uyeda, S. Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 110 (2013) 13734–13738, dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312740110.
  3. Varotsos, P.A.; Sarlis, N.V.; Skordas, E.S. Study of the temporal correlations in the magnitude time series before major earthquakes in Japan. J. Geophys. Res.: Space Physics 119 (2014) 9192–9206, dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020580.
  4. Sarlis, N.V.; Christopoulos, S.R.G.; Skordas, E.S. Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity. Chaos 25 (2015) 063110, dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4922300.
  5. Sarlis, N.V.; Skordas, E.S.; Christopoulos, S.-R.G.; Varotsos, P.A. Statistical significance of minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan, Pure Appl. Geophys. 173 (2016) 165–172, dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0930-8.
  6. Sarlis, N.V.; Skordas, E.S.; Mintzelas, A.; Papadopoulou, K.A. Micro-scale, mid-scale, and macro-scale in global seismicity identified by empirical mode decomposition and their multifractal characteristics. Scientific Reports 8 (2018) 9206, dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27567-y.
  7. Mintzelas, A.; Sarlis, N. Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity and earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns. Physica A 527 (2019) 121293, dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121293.
  8. Fawcett, T., An introduction to ROC analysis, Pattern Recognit. Lett. 27 (2006) 861–874, dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.patrec.2005.10.010.
  9. Donges, J.; Schleussner, C.F.; Siegmund, J.; Donner, R. Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series. The European Physical Journal Special Topics 225 (2016) 471–487, dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y.
  10. Siegmund, J.F.; Siegmund, N.; Donner, R.V. CoinCalc - A new R package for quantifying simultaneities of event series. Computers & Geosciences 98 (2017) 64-72, dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2016.10.004.
  11. Sarlis, N.V. Statistical Significance of Earth’s Electric and Magnetic Field Variations Preceding Earthquakes in Greece and Japan Revisited. Entropy 20 (2018) 561, dx.doi.org/10.3390/e20080561.
  12. Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M. Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals, Tectonophysics 188 (1991) 321–347, dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2.

How to cite: Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., Skordas, E. S., and Christopoulos, S.-R. G.: Statistical significance of the precursory minima of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity by modern methods of Statistical Physics, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7482, 2020