EGU2020-9174
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9174
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model

Valerio Lembo1, Valerio Lucarini1,2,3, and Francesco Ragone4
Valerio Lembo et al.
  • 1Universität Hamburg:, Meteorologisches Institut, CEN, Hamburg, Germany (valerio.lembo@uni-hamburg.de)
  • 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom (v.lucarini@reading.ac.uk)
  • 3Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 4Laboratoire de Physique, ENS de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard, Lyon, France (francesco.ragone@ens-lyon.fr)

Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Typically, an ensemble of simulations is performed considering a scenario of forcing, in order to analyse the response of the climate system to the specific forcing signal. Given that the the climate response spans a very large range of timescales, such a strategy often requires a dramatic amount of computational resources. In this paper we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change for a variety of climatic variables of interest, going beyond the limitation of having to consider specific time patterns of forcing. We perform our study on a fully coupled GCM - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales. We specifically treat atmospheric  (surface temperature) and oceanic variables (strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current), as well as the global ocean heat uptake.

How to cite: Lembo, V., Lucarini, V., and Ragone, F.: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-9174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9174, 2020

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