More than a Feeling: Using Climate Information to Understand and Communicate Storm Risk in Caribbean Small Islands

Given the often disastrous impacts of tropical cyclones on lives, livelihoods and economies, understanding the characteristics of tropical storms and related risks has been of critical concern to a wide range of researchers. While there are pressing efforts to better forecast the track and intensity of tropical storms, and a concerted policy focus on comprehensive disaster risk reduction strategies and financing is evident, there is limited suggestion that climate information is actively being used to understand and communicate storm risk. For instance, do we know the length of time between the first storm advisory/forecast and landfall? How does the forecast skill differ by country? Have we identified the right people to integrate such information into their workflows? Are we prepared to communicate storm risk appropriately and within the timeframes that fit the needs of decision-makers? For Caribbean small islands, which have been historically affected by tropical storms, the answers to these questions are fundamental to improving the context and awareness of local risk, and essential to building early warning systems, disaster preparedness and resilience strategies.

This research first offers an insight into the simple calculation and illustration of storm lead time data, collated from climate information sources including storm tracks and storm advisories for 14 Caribbean countries over the period 1995-2015. It highlights that there is a range of (relatively short) storm lead times across the Caribbean islands, leading to concerns regarding adequate preparedness in countries which may face monetary or other resource-related limitations. Next, it demonstrates how storm risk is generally communicated to various stakeholders within the Caribbean, such as from experts at the US National Hurricane Centre to local Met Offices, and then from the Met Office to disaster agencies and the public. This is done with a view to understanding the enabling factors, as well as challenges of timeliness and other limitations, which may be evident in such information flows.

Alongside other related research, this paper has the potential to deepen the awareness of impending hazard and risk and their associated uncertainties and threats, towards fostering enhanced communication and response options using locally appropriate and timely climate information. Inherent in this discussion is the need for improving the development, dissemination and use of climate information as a critical component of risk management and reduction. This could be considered in the context of better understanding the past, but also noting challenges of non-linear changes. In general, such research aligns well with ongoing regional efforts to strengthen resilience to disaster impacts, complementing strategies focusing on financial needs as well as infrastructural development. Moreover, it advocates the encouragement of climate information within holistic climate adaptation and risk-informed sustainable development policies. Sharing such findings with interested international researchers could be helpful to solicit strategies and solutions which could assist Caribbean decision-makers in national and regional resilience efforts.