Evaluation of future municipal solid waste production. Case study in Valencia region (Spain)

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management activities are an important tasks of both national and municipal governments as they can induce significant impacts on the environment, the economy and the living quality of the population involved.

The optimal design of a MSW management plan depends greatly on the waste production values and its distribution over the territory. This production depends mainly on the socioeconomic level of its inhabitants. On the scientific literature several studies have already been carried out, concluding that there exist a direct relationship between the waste production of a certain country or region and its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Therefore, if GDP increases, so will the rate of waste production, although not necessarily at the same rate.

The objective of the work was to carry out an evaluation of the future production of (MSW) within the V5 production area inside Valencia Region (Spain) in the 2012-2034 time horizon. The year 2011 was used as the starting point for the simulation as this was the last year in which the population census was taken. The correlation between the evolution of the economic growth indicators and the waste production indicators was analyzed. Results showed a linear correlation between all the variables studied so that variations in one of them are reflected in the same direction in the others.