EGU2020-9541
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9541
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

D-MOSS: Dengue Fever Forecasting for Vietnam – Assessment of an Operational System.

Barbara Hofmann1, Gina Tsarouchi1, Felipe Colon2, Eleanor Ainscoe1, Iacopo Ferrario1, Quillon Harpham1, Sam James1, Darren Lumbroso1, Sajni Malde1, Francesca Moschini1, and Claire Robertson1
Barbara Hofmann et al.
  • 1HR Wallingford, UK (b.hofmann@hrwallingford.com)
  • 2London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (felipe.colon@lshtm.ac.uk)

Dengue fever is now present in over 150 countries world-wide, affecting 390 million people per year. In Vietnam the number of cases has increased by 100% since 2000, and 2019 exhibited exceptional high numbers of reported dengue fever cases. Transmission of this mosquito-borne disease is dependent on a variety of climate and socio-economic factors. Among those water availability plays a crucial role in creating or destroying suitable mosquito breeding grounds.

At present mitigating actions are taken based on reported dengue fever cases and local knowledge, leading to a reactive rather than proactive approach of disease control. By combining Earth Observation and vector-borne disease modelling expertise we have developed D-MOSS (Dengue Model Forecasting Satellite based System). The D-MOSS system is funded by the UK Space Agency’s International Partnership Programme and aims to predict the likelihood of future dengue epidemics for Vietnam on a province scale with a lead time of up to six months.

D-MOSS integrates multiple stressors such as water availability, land-cover, precipitation and temperature with data of past dengue fever incidents.  This information is used to develop statistical models of disease incidence, that can then be used to forecast dengue outbreaks based on seasonal weather and hydrological forecasts.  It is the first fully integrated dengue fever forecasting system incorporating Earth Observation data and seasonal climate forecasts to routinely issue warnings. 

D-MOSS takes the form of a web-based platform.  The system’s architecture is based on open and non-proprietary software, where possible, and on flexible deployment into platforms including cloud-based virtual storage and application processing. Working closely with public health authorities in Vietnam enabled us to develop a system tailored to the local needs and decision making procedures.

How to cite: Hofmann, B., Tsarouchi, G., Colon, F., Ainscoe, E., Ferrario, I., Harpham, Q., James, S., Lumbroso, D., Malde, S., Moschini, F., and Robertson, C.: D-MOSS: Dengue Fever Forecasting for Vietnam – Assessment of an Operational System., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-9541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9541, 2020

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