The Role of the NECC in a Strong El Niño.

An analysis of archived data from the NEMO 1/12th degree global ocean model shows the importance of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) in the development of the strong 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niños.  The model results indicate that in a normal year the coreof warm water in the NECC is diluted by the surface Ekman transport, by geostrophic inflow and by tropical instability waves. During the development of the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niños, these processes had reduced effect at the longitudes of warmest equatorial temperatures. During the autumns of 1982 and 1997, the speed of the NECC was also increased by a stronger-than-normal annual Rossby wave and other changes in sea level in the western Pacific.  The resulting increased transport of warm water by the NECC resulted in water with temperatures above 28C reaching the eastern Pacific.  This appears to have been a major factor in moving the centre of deep atmospheric convection eastwards across the Pacific.

Note:  This is based on the paper published in Ocean Science.  An oral presentation is possible.