Evaluating Arctic meteorology modelled with the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System

State-of-the-art numerical models such as the UK Met Office Unified Model and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System are crucial tools for forecasting future Arctic warming. However, their ability to reproduce clouds and boundary layer meteorology in the high Arctic has not been thoroughly evaluated following significant model developments over the last 10 years. Model evaluation is key to understanding where remaining process weaknesses lie, thus informing further parametrization developments to improve the simulated surface energy budget.

Here, we evaluate model performance with comparison to observations made during the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition, where a suite of remote-sensing instrumentation was active aboard the Swedish icebreaker Oden measuring summertime Arctic cloud and boundary layer properties. We find that both models do not reproduce cloud fractions well at altitude (up to 8 km) and overestimate the occurrence of low (<1 km) clouds during the sea ice melt period of the expedition. Low cloud agreement with observations improves when the sea ice begins to refreeze; however, the underestimation of cloud aloft remains consistent regardless of sea ice conditions. In this presentation, we will indicate which model processes need to be improved to capture these summertime Arctic clouds more effectively.