Displays

The availability of water at the ground surface for vector mosquito larval habitats is a critical environmental control of malaria transmission. While ambient air temperature controls the rate of several components of the malaria transmission cycle, extensive laboratory and field studies mean that suitable temperature ranges are well established. In contrast, estimation of surface water availability from current global datasets remains challenging. Instead, monthly rainfall is typically used as a proxy for habitat availability; a threshold of 80 mm per month has gained traction as a proxy for breeding habitat in continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability in Africa and has been applied across the globe. However, since complex and spatially variable hydrological processes (e.g. infiltration, evaporation, soil moisture storage, transfer through and storage in river networks) are omitted, a wide variety of rainfall thresholds are found in the literature that leads to large differences in environmental suitability estimates. Moreover, irrigated areas have been observed to provide suitable year-round habitat for Anopheles mosquitos but are not included in such models.

Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to precipitation thresholds than the thermal response curves applied. To address this problem and provide a more physical-basis for larval habitat estimation, we use daily climate predictions from seven downscaled general circulation models to run a continental-scale hydrological model (Lisflood) for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria climatic suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The area estimated to be hydro-climatically suitable for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest; however, more people are found in longer-transmission season areas due to higher-density populations along rivers and in irrigated areas. Hydro-climatic predictions of malaria suitable areas show only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios; however, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when a hydrological model is used to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding. 

How to cite: Smith, M., Willis, T., Alfieri, L., James, W., Trigg, M., Yamazaki, D., Hardy, A., Bisselink, B., De Roo, A., Macklin, M., and Thomas, C.: Modelling hydro-climatic suitability of malaria transmission in Africa: new patterns emerge, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3543, 2020.

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main urban vector that transmits Dengue disease worldwide. In the last 25 years it has had a significant increase at a global level, reaching areas where it was eradicated, such as the reappearance in the extreme north of Chile, an area covered by the Atacama Desert. This mosquito is closely related to human settlements, which present risks that lie in the capacity of transmission of diseases caused by arboviruses by Aedes aegypti such as: Zika, Chikungunya, Yellow Fever and Dengue. The last one is the most important viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes in humans with more than 50 million estimated cases annually in over 100 countries. The aim of this study is to analyze the urban and environmental variables that determine the reappearance of the vector and to propose mitigation measures to reduce the risks of contagion. This study is located in the city of Arica (18°28'28.6'' S 70°17'52.5'' W) in the extreme north of the Atacama Desert, which has extraordinary habitability conditions characterized by rivers that are reactivated by summer rains in the Andes and valleys with agro-ecological productivity. The Pan American Health Organization determined the end of the presence of the mosquito in 1961 and its reappearance from 2016 in continental Chile. About the methods, the Health Authority established action limits based on the risks presented by these areas in terms of health interest and location, through inspections that allowed the identification of the vulnerability of each area. This was done by means of inspections that made it possible to identify the vulnerability of the sites. The discovery sites were geolocated according to the phenomenology of the species, considering the radius of flight among other phenological characteristics. The results allowed the identification of critical areas for the establishment of focus. The residential typologies of the sites were classified as industrial zones and suburbs in the urban limits with space-time coincidences. During 2016, 56 cases were found in urban and peri-urban areas between May and June. In 2018 there were findings between March-April with 14 cases in industrial and residential areas, while in 2019 there were findings between January-May and December with a total of 27 positive cases in peri-urban areas. In conclusion, there is evidence of a shift in findings from residential areas of paired housing (2016) to industrial areas (2018) and to suburbs in 2019. There is evidence of a deseasonalization in the findings of the mosquito, being a problem that must be controlled throughout the year. Therefore, there is an urgent need to find work methodologies that can anticipate the detection of mosquitoes in sites that present a high risk, in order to take decisions on health management and apply control measures to regulate the accumulation of water. Environmental Education is proposed as a method to promote citizen awareness to face the risks associated with the vector together with government, academic and community coordination, cooperation and collaboration.

How to cite: Gonzalez-Pacheco, M., Francos, M., Olivares, A., and Úbeda, X.: Key socio-economic and environmental factors in the reappearance of the Aedes aegypti mosquito in the Atacama (North Chile) Desert areas and mitigation risk measures., EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-10413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10413, 2020.

Several studies have revealed that rainfall and temperature are highly correlated with malaria spread. There are several studies relating the combined effect of hydrological and meteorological information for the malaria diseases^1–4 . In this study, attempts are being made for assessing the combined effect of hydro-meteorological variables on malaria disease at the regional scale. It reveals that evaporation is one of the essential climatic variables in this context, which is jointly derived by hydrological and meteorological variables. To our best knowledge, there are very few studies which have been performed to analyse the relations between malaria and the ratio of precipitation (P) and actual evaporation (AET). This study analyses the impact of the ratio of P and actual AET on malaria diseases. The work has performed at regional scale using annual data of malaria disease over the Tirap district of Arunachal Pradesh in India. Annual P data from Indian Meteorological (IMD) and GRUN⁵  global surface runoff during the period of 1995 to 2012 are used for this analysis. The AET was estimated as difference e between P and runoff time series. The AET and P relationship with Plasmodium vivax (PV), Plasmodium falciparum (PF) is analysed. The sum of PV and PF is BSB indicator, it shows the total number of people affected by malaria. The study has revealed that fraction P/AET is negatively correlated with PV, PB and BSB. In comparison to hydrological and meteorological variables like P, surface runoff, AET and AET/P which are mostly positively correlated with BSB, PV and PF. This preliminary result will be further explored in order to find a connection on improving the forecast of malaria diseases using hydrometeorological inputs for better health management In the studied district.

References

How to cite: Kumari, R., Gouda, K. C., Singh, U., Maca, P., Bimla, K. R., s., H., Suma, N., Benke, M. V., Rao, S., and Usn, M.: Hydro-meteorological Impact on Malaria Diseases at Regional Scale in India, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20045, 2020.

Tropical Africa has been experiencing a long term drying trend for the last two decades. Climate change and variability has an influence on rain-fed agriculture under the Tropics. Many studies have investigated on the role of climate change and variability on crop yields, but with a limited number of predictors. We use detailed gridded crop statistics time series data to examine how recent climate inter-annual variability led to variations in maize yields. The added-value of this study is, that it integrates for the first time different sets of variables on different spatial scales, 107 in total: local, regional and global. A cross-validated model output statistics (MOS) approach is applied to choose physically motivated predictors. Both climate variables and maize yields were de-trended. The results revealed that inter-annual climate variability accounts for globally more than 35 percent of the observed maize variability in Tropical Africa. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and maize yield variability, highlighting where variations in different group of predictors interact and explain maize yield variability. Overall, temperature and precipitation principal component variables are preferably selected by the model. The next step of the study will consist of using the MOS equation to forecast future maize yield changes based on climate model output. The implication of the study is that, it will generate policy interventions towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

How to cite: Bangelesa, F., Pollinger, F., and Paeth, H.: Impact of climate change and variability on maize yield in Tropical Africa, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-21902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21902, 2020.

Most of the food production connected to crops is located in fluvial corridors because of their suitable morphology and fertile soils. The knowledge and large scale quantification of the agricultural resources at flood risk has a crucial importance for improving urban and regional planning. Recent advances in satellite derived products related to land use, digital terrain and hydrologic variables can give a strong support on extensive analyses on cropland areas in floodplains and their interactions with natural ecosystems and human activities. In this work, we present a global assessment of cropland at flood risk in terms of extension, productivity and the related calories adopting the Global Cropland Area Database (GCAD), the Global Floodplain Dataset (GFPLAIN250m), the Global flood hazard maps (GFHM) in conjunction with continental remotely-sensed data representing free flowing (versus artificially regulated) rivers and urban density maps. Spatially distributed and aggregated results of the research allow to identify the most critical areas in terms of food security and floods, thus allowing to support intervention strategies for food security management at large scale and for different socio-economic contexts.

How to cite: Annis, A., Chiarelli, D. D., Nardi, F., and Rulli, M. C.: Analysis of potential flood damage on crops at global scale, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19533, 2020.

Plastic mulching is an effective field practice to improve crop water productivity (WP), especially widely used in arid and semi-arid areas. The positive effects of soil mulching on crop yield and WP have been studied through numerous field experiments and simulations at the site scale. However, few studies have focused on the mulching effects at the regional scale. Zhangye oasis, a typical arid region in the middle Heihe River Basin, was chosen as the study area. Global sensitivity analysis was applied to determine the most sensitive parameters in AquaCrop model. Based on the results of global sensitivity analysis, soil and crop parameters of AquaCrop model were calibrated and validated using field observations from three stations. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values for soil water content, seed maize canopy cover, aboveground biomass, yield, spring wheat canopy cover, aboveground biomass and yield were 18.7%, 6.7%, 23.5%, 12.5%, 10.7%, 24.2% and 15.0% during the calibration period, and the corresponding values during the validation period were 25.1%, 7.0%, 22.2%, 17.7%, 9.1%, 23.6% and 11.7%, respectively. These values indicated the calibrated model performed well to simulate the soil water content and crop growth. Compared with no-mulching, the average soil water content during the growth period, seed maize yield and WP under mulching had been increased by 8.8%, 3.0% and 3.0%, respectively. The results demonstrated that plastic mulching could effectively improve the yield and WP of seed maize, which not significantly on spring wheat. This study offers a quantitatively analysis for plastic mulching applications at the regional scale.

How to cite: Zhang, W. and Zheng, C.: Modeling effects of plastic mulching on crop yields and water productivity in the middle Heihe River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-8601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8601, 2020.

Irrigation is crucial for sustaining food security for the growing population around the world. Irrigation affects the hydrological cycle both directly, during the process of water abstraction and irrigation, and indirectly, because of infrastructures that have been built in support of irrigation, such as canals, dams, reservoirs, and drainage systems. For evaluating the availability of freshwater resources in the light of growing food demand, modeling the global hydrological cycle is vital. The GlobWat model is one of the models that have been designed for large scale hydrological modeling, with a specific focus on considering irrigated agriculture water use. Both models’ underlying assumptions and the global input data sets used to feed the model could be sources of uncertainty in the output. One of the most challenging input data sets in global hydrological models is the climate input data set. There are several climate forcings available on a global scale like ERA5 and ERA-Interim. In this study, we assess the sensitivity of the GlobWat model to these climate forcing. Pre-processing climate data at a large scale used to be difficult. Recently, this has become much easier by data and scripts provided by eWaterCycle team at the eSience center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. We will use eWaterCycle's freely available data sources for our assessment and then we will compare the model results with observed data at a local scale.

How to cite: Abdollahi, B., Hut, R., and van de Giesen, N.: Assessing GlobWat model sensitivity to climate forcing , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-9911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9911, 2020.

The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.

How to cite: Kummu, M., Heino, M., Taka, M., Varis, O., and Viviroli, D.: Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12897, 2020.

Stormwater quality management has evolved from traditional centralized downstream control devices (e.g. ponds and wetlands) to distributed low impact development practices (LID) at the source (e.g. bioretention, porous pavement, greenroof).  In order to develop master LID plans for municipalities in the Lake Simcoe watershed (3576 km²), a new modeling approach was developed.  The challenge of modeling small scale LID practices over a watershed scale was resolved using unit response functions (URF) of different types of LID.  The concept of URF is based on the linear assumption of LID performance on a watershed level where routing is not important.  Detailed URF of runoff and nutrient reduction were developed on a lot level using US EPA SWMM models and linked with lot level characteristics such as imperviousness percentage.  The process of modeling include: (1) screening of appropriate LID across the watershed based on identification of unsuitable areas (e.g. wellhead protection area, NaCl concentration, industrial land use) and prioritization suitable lots which maximize environmental benefits and demonstration potential; (2) development of hydrological unit response functions of each type of LID (i.e. average annual runoff and nutrient loading reduction) using US EPA SWMM models; (3) aggregation of the cumulative runoff and nutrient reduction of all appropriate LID at each municipalities; (4) cost-effective analysis of different combinations of LID (i.e. Pareto front); (5) recommendation of the preferred LID combinations for each municipal within the watershed .  Results of the modeling indicate that (1) the average annual runoff volume reduction of implementing LID for the uncontrolled urban areas in Lake Simcoe watershed is estimated to be between 20% and 33%; and (2) the average annual phosphorus reduction of implementing LID for the uncontrolled urban areas in Lake Simcoe watershed is estimated to be between 2.0 to 2.7 tonnes per year.  This study has demonstrated a new modeling approach of small scale LID over watershed scales. 

How to cite: Li, J.: Modeling of Low Impact Development Nutrient Reduction Performance in the Lake Simcoe Watershed, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6472, 2020.

In Taiwan, the regional drainage is the system of two or more of urban, agricultural and enterprise drainages. Communities locate in or around the urban river, farmland or estuary are significantly involved in four services of ecosystem services. From 2016, central government forced each public construction project has to implement ecologic check work. However, these check work did not yet follow the idea of ecosystem services so that the operation of public construction projects in these two years could not reach the target completely. This study introduces the idea of ecosystem services into the ecologic check work of regional drainage projects to explore the feasibility of selected parameters in ecosystem services.          

This study refers to ecosystem service strategies such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005), the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB, 2010) and the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES, 2017), considering the extensiveness, feasibility, and regional characteristics of regional drainage for ecosystem services. In addition, this study designs two checklist forms for master plan and project, respectively. After implementing ecologic check work for three cases in Taiwan, the result explores the feasibility of ecosystem services in regional drainage system.   

How to cite: Fu, Y.-M., Hsu, Y.-C., and Huang, H.-P.: Exploring Regional Drainage with Ecosystem Service in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6425, 2020.

The Taipei Basin is located in the northwestern part of Taiwan. In the past, it faced the problem of ground subsidence due to the over-pumping of the groundwater layer. Later, due to the implementation of control policies, the situation of groundwater over-pumping has greatly improved, but now it is exposed to the risk of soil liquefaction due to the high groundwater level.

This research mainly trying to do two things. The first one is to establish the MODFLOW model by objective methods. Because the MODFLOW model was often established based on subjective conditions in the past it results that everyone has a different model in the same research area. This study tries to establish a more objective model. The second thing is to use the established model to develop an optimal pumping strategy, hoping to establish a pumping strategy that can minimize the risk of formation subsidence and soil liquefaction. This study includes an economical loss to assist in quantifying risk. The other constraints are well capacity, nonnegative constraint, soil liquefaction groundwater level upper limit and land subsidence water level lower limit. Evaluating the optimal groundwater control strategy by minimizing economical loss through MODFLOW parameterization using Monte-Carlo simulation.

How to cite: Tseng, H.-T., Yu, H.-L., and Chang, T.-J.: Using Data-based Modeled Groundwater Model to Developing Groundwater Optimal Pumping Strategy – A Case of Taipei Basin, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6372, 2020.

Astronaut nutrition is an important aspect to consider for extra-terrestrial missions. It encompasses microbiological risks for humans, individual nutritional needs and the social well-being of astronauts. During a two-week analogue astronaut mission to the Moon, research focusing on the dietary needs and health of each crew member was performed. A crew of six analog astronauts, from the EuroMoonMars IMA HI-SEAS II (EMMIHS-II) mission followed a pre-prepared personal menu based on their intolerances and daily activities. 

The first things that needed to be considered was the sanitary aspect of the missions, as it severely limits food choices. Fresh foods that are consumed on Earth are microbiologically fragile and occupy an important conservation space air. In order to ensure food safety and optimize storage space, the only food taken on the EMMIHS-II mission was freezedried.

Prior to the mission, the food rations and distribution amongst crewmembers was determined according to the average nutritional and calorific needs of the group. To maintain a basal metabolism, a balanced nutrition is required. A healthy and sufficient food intake is of high importance, particularly due to the regular physical activity each crewmember performs during Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) that the crew performed daily.

It was not possible to determine the actual amount of energy consumed on a daily basis during this mission for logistical reasons. It was also not possible to weigh out the food for each individual crewmember, as it would have taken up too much of the mission time. In the future, portions could be determined in terms of “cup sizes” per person, as this would be the most realistic measure for the preparation of freeze-dried food. 

Furthermore, various digestive problems have been identified throughout this mission. Possible explanations for these issues could be a too abrupt change of eating habits including the lack of consumption of fresh fruits, fresh vegetables and the lack of fiber-rich cereals. In order to avoid this on future missions, the next strategy could be to first estimate the dietary intake of vegetable fibre for each individual before the mission start, in order to individually adapt the fruit and vegetable ration recommendations.

A diverse distribution of culinary recipes is also recommended for the preparation of future missions, in order to improve the taste of the meals for the crew. Taste is an important part of the pleasure of eating and as a result, it heavily influences the intake of food. This inevitably has an effect on the physical and mental well-being of the crew.

Finally, the social and psychological aspect of food plays an important role in the mental well-being of the astronauts. In this context, it was found that the food preparation and meal-sharing moments enabled the team to strengthen their social ties, which was in favour of their fulfilment. However, on the other hand, pleasure from eating and each crewmembers’ appetite did often not correspond to this. Hence, it was found that the freezedried food did not contribute to the emotional wellbeing of the astronauts.

How to cite: Chappuis, J., Pouwels, C., Musilova, M., and Foing, B.: Personalised Dietary Plans And Health Effects On Astronauts In Extra-Terrestrial Habitats, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20628, 2020.

A weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, offline coupled with the Jensen’s wake model in WASP, is used to predict the power output in a large wind farm located within the Changhua Coastal Industrial Park, Taiwan. The wind farm has 31 Vestas V80 wind turbines with a hub height of 67 m installed in the park area (about 8 by 8 square km). A WRF simulation can provide simulation results of wind speed, wind direction, pressure, and temperature every 30 minutes for model validation. We chose December 2015 as the main simulation scenario, because that month was mainly northeast monsoon, and the wind speed could change from 2-3 m/s to more than 25 m/s every 3 to 7 days. The WRF results are then used in Jensen’s wake model in WASP to estimate the turbine power output. The simulation results show that as long as the turbine is under normal operating conditions, the predicted and actual measured power outputs have an acceptable agreement. The comparison of wind speed and wind direction is also quite consistent. The predicted temperature is lower than the measured temperature at the actual hub position. This discrepancy is mainly because the hub generator generates a lot of heat during the power generation process, which causes the air temperature near the hub to rise.

How to cite: Teng, W.-G., Wu, Y.-T., and Lin, C.-Y.: Prediction of Power Output in a Large Wind Farm Using the WRF Model, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-4759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4759, 2020.

In most cases, disasters are assessed at an event-level, for example, by focusing on quantitative surveys of casualties, physical damages, and qualitative root-cause analyses of individual events. The disaster risks are evaluated based on expected utility loss by calculating the probability of occurrence and potential consequences. However, we should know that disaster causes are increasingly sophisticated and usually entangle quickly with deep social and organizational problems, and their impacts are prolonged with a further complication in the nexus of societal systems. To reduce disaster risk, we propose to consider disasters as inseparable parts of the societal operation and critical resource and service circulation, deviating from the well-established concept that a disaster is simply the tragic outcome of human casualties and property damages. Therefore, we will develop a novel DR3 analysis framework to address the dynamic change patterns of risks, i.e., “risk dynamics,” as a key concept for analyzing risk in complex socio-technical systems. In this proposition, DR3 analysis should consider all components of the socio-technical systems that are susceptible to disaster-induced functional perturbations and the DR3 assessment is associated with the overall state change of the socio-technical systems and their performance controllability of the organizations. The failures of the physical systems and individual human factors in the organizations are critical for comprehensive risk analysis. To achieve the goal, we establish a multidisciplinary team to address DR3 vital issues by using the participatory system dynamics modeling approach in this project. Consortium partners will focus on unique disaster cases and test the underlying hypotheses from multiple perspectives. Stakeholders from government agencies and infrastructure service providers will be engaged through continuous and direct involvement in dialogues and activities, supporting the development of risk-dynamics based DR3 solutions.

How to cite: Huang, T., Yu, H.-L., Nikolopoulos, E., Langousis, A., Zhu, J., Dunn, S., and Yasunobu, M.: Framework Development for Disaster Risk Dynamics and Resilience Analytics in Complex Socio-Technical Systems, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12905, 2020.