NP – Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences
Programme group chair:
NP2 – Dynamical Systems and Stochastic Approaches in Geosciences
Programme group scientific officer:
Recent years have seen a substantial progress in the understanding of the nonlinear and stochastic processes responsible for important dynamical aspects of the complex Earth system. The Earth system is a complex system with a multitude of spatial and temporal scales which interact nonlinearly with each other. For understanding this complex system new methods from dynamical systems, complex systems theory, complex network theory, statistics and climate and Earth sciences are needed.
In this context the session is open to contributions on all aspects of the nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of the Earth system, including the atmosphere, the ocean and the climate system. Communications based on theoretical and modeling studies, as well as on experimental investigations are welcome. Studies that span the range of model hierarchy from idealized models to complex Earth System Models (ESM), data driven models, use observational data and also theoretical studies are particularly encouraged.
Invited Speaker: Anna von der Heydt (Utrecht University)
François G. Schmitt,
Wed, 06 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
Papers are solicited related to the understanding and prediction of weather, climate and geophysical extremes, from both an applied sciences and theoretical viewpoint.
In this session we propose to group together the traditional geophysical sciences and more mathematical/statistical approaches to the study of extremes. We aim to highlight the complementary nature of these two viewpoints, with the aim of gaining a deeper understanding of extreme events.
Potential topics of interest include but are not limited to the following:
· How extremes have varied or are likely to vary under climate change;
· How well climate models capture extreme events;
· Attribution of extreme events;
· Emergent constraints on extremes;
· Linking dynamical systems extremes to geophysical extremes;
· Extremes in dynamical systems;
· Downscaling of weather and climate extremes.
· Linking the dynamics of climate extremes to their impacts
Tue, 05 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
High-impact climate and weather events typically result from the interaction of multiple hazards across various spatial and temporal scales. These events, also known as Compound Events, often cause more severe socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events, rendering traditional univariate extreme event analyses and risk assessment techniques insufficient. It is therefore crucial to develop new methodologies that account for the possible interaction of multiple physical drivers when analysing high-impact events. Such an endeavour requires (i) a deeper understanding of the interplay of mechanisms causing Compound Events and (ii) an evaluation of the performance of climate/weather, statistical and impact models in representing Compound Events.
The European COST Action DAMOCLES coordinates these efforts by building a research network consisting of climate scientists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders. This session creates a platform for this network and acts as an introduction of the work related to DAMOCLES to the research community.
We invite papers studying all aspects of Compound Events, which might relate to (but are not limited to) the following topics:
Synthesis and Analysis: What are common features for different classes of Compound Events? Which climate variables need to be assessed jointly in order to address related impacts? How much is currently known about the dependence between these variables?
Stakeholders and science-user interface: Which events are most relevant for stakeholders? What are novel approaches to ensure continuous stakeholder engagement?
Impacts: What are the currently available sources of impact data? How can they be used to link observed impacts to climate and weather events?
Statistical approaches, model development and evaluation: What are possible novel statistical models that could be applied in the assessment of Compound Events?
Realistic model simulations of events: What are the physical mechanisms behind different types of Compound Events? What type of interactions result in the joint impact of the hazards that are involved in the event? How do these interactions influence risk assessment analyses?
Nina Nadine RidderECSECS,
Bart van den Hurk,
Mon, 04 May, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
ENSO and its interactions with other tropical basins are the dominant source of interannual climate variability in the tropics and across the globe. Understanding the dynamics, predictability, and impacts of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, and anticipating their future changes are thus of vital importance for society. This session invites contributions regarding all aspects of ENSO and tropical basins interactions, including: dynamics, multi-scale interactions; low frequency, decadal and paleo variability; theoretical approaches; ENSO diversity; global teleconnections; impacts on climate, society and ecosystems; seasonal forecasting and climate change projections of ENSO and its tropical basins interactions. Studies aimed at understanding ENSO and its tropical basins interactions in models of a range of complexity are especially welcomed, including analysis of CMIP model intercomparisons.
welcome to the virtual EGU 2020. This is just a reminder that we will have the "ENSO and Tropical Basins Interactions: Dynamics, Predictability and Modelling" (CL4.20/AS1.12/NP2.6/OS1.27) session Thu, 07 May, 14:00–15:45 (Vienna time zone). It will be an online chat only session.
In addition to the EGU chat session on Thursday we plan to do a video meeting for the "ENSO and Tropical Basins Interactions: Dynamics, Predictability and Modelling" session with presentations from the authors (you) some time later this year (e.g. June/July). More on this we will discuss on Thursday in the EGU chat of this session.
Best regards and hope to chat with you on Thursday!
Dietmar Dommenget, Antonietta Capotondi, Daniela Domeisen and Eric Guilyardi
Thu, 07 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)