Wave climate in the Black Sea: description and trend evaluation using new ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis and wave-current interaction.

This study analyzes the evolution of the wave climate in the Black Sea basin in a 31-year long hindcast (1988-2018) performed with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII v5.16, forced by the ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis winds at 30km of spatial resolution and 1-hour frequency. The wave model is implemented on a grid covering the whole Black Sea, with 3km grid step and is off-line coupled with a NEMO based hydrodynamical model. The wave spectrum is discretized using 24 directional sectors, and 30 frequencies, with 10% increment starting from 0.055Hz. The model is implemented to solve deep water processes, following the WAM Cycle4 model physics, with Ultimate Quickest propagation scheme and GSE alleviation, which is implemented in WWIII. Wind input and dissipation are based on Ardhuin et al. (2010), wave-wave interactions are based on Discrete Interaction Approximation. Currents and air-sea temperature difference are provided to the wave model to account for Doppler shift and atmospheric stability above the sea. Model validation and statistical analysis have been carried out to describe the wave climate of the Black sea, considering the following wave fields: significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tm) and mean wave direction. Statistics as Mean, Maximum, 5^th percentile and 95^th statistics have been computed to produce monthly climatologies. The work considers also the evaluation of trends for Hs and Tm, and the evaluation of tendency in the occurrence frequency of mean and max fields for Hs and Tm.

There is no evidence about an overall trend in Hs and Tm, but tendencies can be highlighted in some months and seasons. The most evident trend occurs in Summer on the whole wave spectrum, with reduction of Hs and Tm in the Eastern basin, and increasing in the South-Western basins. Even the evaluation of occurrence frequencies suggests that Black Sea is subjected to a change in the wave regime.