The CME arrival prediction with the Effective Acceleration Model: Further testing with heliospheric imaging observations
- 1Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, Penteli, Athens, Greece (evpaouris@noa.gr)
- 2Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD 20723, USA
The estimation of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival is an open issue in the field of Space Weather. Many models have been developed to predict Time-of-Arrival (ToA). In this work, we utilize an updated version of the Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) to calculate the ToA. The EAM predicts the ToA of the CME-driven shock and the sheath's average speed at 1 AU. The model assumes that the interaction between the ambient solar wind and the interplanetary CME (ICME) results in constant acceleration or deceleration. We recently compared EAM against ENLIL and drag based models (DBEM) with a sample of 16 CMEs. We confirmed the well-known fact that the deceleration of fast ICMEs in the interplanetary medium is not captured by most models. We study further the deceleration of fast ICMEs by introducing, for the first time, wide-angle observations by the STEREO heliospheric imagers into the EAM model. The speed profiles for some test cases show deceleration in the interplanetary medium at greater distances compared with the field-of-view of the coronagraphs.
How to cite: Paouris, E., Vourlidas, A., Papaioannou, A., and Anastasiadis, A.: The CME arrival prediction with the Effective Acceleration Model: Further testing with heliospheric imaging observations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10254, 2021.
