Can the 1.5 deg C warming target be met in a global transition to 100% renewable energy?
- Howard University, Department of Biology, Washington, D.C., United States of America (dschwartzman@gmail.com)
Can the 1.5 deg C warming target still be met with an aggressive phaseout of fossil fuels coupled with a 100% replacement by renewable energy? We address this question in our modeling study by computing the continuous generation of global wind/solar energy power along with the cumulative carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in a complete phaseout of fossil fuels over a 20 year period. We assume a baseline of energy status at 2018, as well as the EROI of currently available wind/solar energy technologies. We compare these computed emissions with the state-of-the-science estimates for the remaining carbon budget of carbon dioxide emissions consistent with the 1.5 deg C warming target. Our conclusion is that it is still possible to meet this warming target if the creation of a global 100% renewable energy transition of sufficient capacity begins very soon, coupled with aggressive negative carbon emissions. The latter technology uses a fraction of total renewable energy delivery for direct air capture for permanent crustal storage over the last ten years of this energy transition that is compatible for simulations with no more than 10 to 15 % reinvestment of renewable energy to make more of itself. More efficient renewable technologies in the near future will make this transition easier. The maximum amount of fossil fuel consumed in our scenarios for the complete transition is no more than 5% of the proven reserves of coal, natural gas and oil as currently estimated.
How to cite: Schwartzman, D. and Schwartzman, P.: Can the 1.5 deg C warming target be met in a global transition to 100% renewable energy? , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10444, 2021.