How are Global Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events Changing?

As the global temperature increases, the likelihood of extreme temperature and precipitation events occurring is expected to change across many parts of the world. In particular, a warmer world can alter the spatiotemporal characteristics (e.g., intensity, magnitude, distribution, frequency) and patterns of such events. The changing character of extreme events in the future can have substantial impacts (e.g., flooding, drought) that affect our society, built and natural environments, and food, water, and energy systems. We therefore must better understand and quantify how the distribution of temperature and precipitation are changing. In this study, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations are used to characterize shifts in the distribution of temperature and precipitation as they vary across space and time using both historical simulations and projections. This research demonstrates how different parts of these distributions exhibit nonlinear changes (e.g., the hottest and wettest events) in the future. This study also characterizes inter-model differences to better assess uncertainty across historical simulations and projections as well as how human activities influence extreme events.