Modeling the Sun – Earth propagation of solar disturbances for the H2020 SafeSpace project

We present the solar wind forecast pipeline that is being implemented as part of the H2020 SafeSpace project. The Goal of this project is to use several tools in a modular fashion to address the physics of Sun – interplanetary space – Earth’s magnetosphere. This presentation focuses on the part of the pipeline that is dedicated to the forecasting – from solar measurements – of the solar wind properties at the Lagrangian L1 point. The modeling pipeline puts together different mature research models: determination of the background coronal magnetic field, computation of solar wind acceleration profiles (1 to 90 solar radii), propagation across the heliosphere (for regular solar wind, CIRs and CMEs), and comparison to spacecraft measurements. Different magnetogram sources (WSO, SOLIS, GONG, ADAPT) can be combined, as well as coronal field reconstruction methods (PFSS, NLFFF), wind (MULTI-VP) and heliospheric propagation models (CDPP 1D MHD, EUHFORIA). We aim at providing a web-based service that continuously supplies a full set of bulk physical parameters of the solar wind at 1 AU several days in advance, at a time cadence compatible with space weather applications. This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870437.