EGU21-11165, updated on 04 Mar 2021
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Projections of future sea level change from a global perspective and with a focus on South Africa

Lesley Allison1, Matthew Palmer1, and Ivan Haigh2
Lesley Allison et al.
  • 1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK (
  • 2Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, UK

In this work we explore projections of future sea level change using methods that build upon those used for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). These methods use a large Monte Carlo simulation to represent the uncertainty across components of sea level change.  The Monte Carlo approach for global mean sea level is extended to local projections for individual tide gauge locations to ensure traceablity to the global mean projections and preserve correlations between terms in the sea level budget.  As part of the WCSSP South Africa programme (which is a collaborative initiative between the Met Office in the UK and the South African Weather Service), we explore the sea level components for locations around the coast of South Africa and examine the physical drivers of local sea level change signals.  For the individual tide gauge locations, the projection uncertainty is larger than it is for the global mean, but several key details emerge and the drivers of these will be discussed.

How to cite: Allison, L., Palmer, M., and Haigh, I.: Projections of future sea level change from a global perspective and with a focus on South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11165,, 2021.

Corresponding presentation materials formerly uploaded have been withdrawn.