Predicting geo-effectiveness of CMEs using a novel 3D CME model FRi3D integrated into EUHFORIA

Previous studies of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have shown the importance of understanding their geometrical structure and internal magnetic field configuration for improving forecasting at Earth. The precise prediction of the CME shock and the magnetic cloud arrival time, their magnetic field strength and the orientation upon impact at Earth is still challenging and relies on solar wind and CME evolution models and precise input parameters. In order to understand the propagation of CMEs in the interplanetary medium, we need to understand their interaction with the complex features in the magnetized background solar wind which deforms, deflects and erodes the CMEs and determines their geo-effectiveness. Hence, it is important to model the internal magnetic flux-rope structure in the CMEs as they interact with CIRs/SIRs, other CMEs and solar transients in the heliosphere. The spheromak model (Verbeke et al. 2019) in the heliospheric wind and CME evolution simulation EUHFORIA (Pomoell and Poedts, 2018), fits well with the data near the CME nose close to its axis but fails to predict the magnetic field in CME legs when these impact Earth (Scolini et al. 2019). Therefore, we implemented the FRi3D stretched flux-rope CME model (Isavnin, 2016) in EUHFORIA to model a more realistic CME geometry. Fri3D captures the three-dimensional magnetic field structure with parameters like skewing, pancaking and flattening that quantify deformations experienced by an interplanetary CME. We perform test runs of real CME events and validate the ability of FRi3D coupled with EUHFORIA in predicting the CME geo-effectiveness. We have modeled two real events with FRi3D. First, a CME event on 12 July 2012 which was a head-on encounter at Earth. Second, the flank CME encounter of 14 June 2012 which did not leave any magnetic field signature at Earth when modeled with Spheromak. We compare our results with the results from non-magnetized cone simulations and magnetized simulations employing the spheromak flux-rope model. We further discuss how constraining observational parameters using the stretched flux rope CME geometry in FRi3D affects the prediction of the magnetic field strength in our simulations, highlighting improvements and discussing future perspective.

This research has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870405 (EUHFORIA 2.0)